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Department of Mathematics,
University of California San Diego

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Probability Seminar

Priscilla Greenwood

Arizona State University

Autonomous stochastic resonance produces epidemic oscillations of fluctuating size

Abstract:

It is known from simulations that stochastic epidemic models such as SIR, SIRS produce sustained oscillations, whereas the corresponding deterministic models produce damped oscillations. We use multiscale analysis to identify a parameter range in which stochastic SIR is approximated by a stochastic combination of sinusoids, where the coefficient processes run on a slow time scale. Ornstein-Uhlenbeck excursions form an envelope of the epidemic oscillations.

Host: Ruth Williams

November 2, 2006

9:00 AM

AP&M 6402

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